Document Type : Research/Original/Regular Article

Authors

• javad masoumi ¹
• hadi morad piri damaq ²

¹ Research manager

² Faculty Member

Abstract

The emergence of hybrid threats—including simultaneous physical, cyber, cognitive, and internal infiltration attacks—has fundamentally challenged traditional national defense structures. The hybrid assault launched by the Zionist regime against Iran's military and critical infrastructure on June 13, 2025, with comprehensive support from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and certain Arab states, stands as a prominent example of multidimensional aggression. This event exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional deterrence doctrines and underscored the urgent need for a future-oriented and indigenous defense-security paradigm.

This qualitative and foresight-oriented study aims to develop a novel defensive-security doctrine tailored to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s national context in the face of hybrid warfare. Employing structural analysis (MICMAC) and Delphi techniques, key security variables and their causal–influence relationships were identified, leading to the design of an intelligent, multilayered, and integrated national security system. The cross-impact matrix analysis revealed that variables such as command integration, multi-layered early warning systems, active cyber deterrence, narrative cognition management, public participation, and internal defense play pivotal roles in reshaping the defense-security architecture.

Findings indicate that achieving sustainable national security in the era of hybrid wars requires a proactive, network-based, and perception-oriented doctrine—one grounded in institutional coordination, cognitive resilience, public readiness, and rapid decision-making. The proposed conceptual model defines security not as a static structure but as a dynamic, adaptive, and responsive system capable of aligning with emerging threats and future scenarios.

Keywords

• Defense-security doctrine
• hybrid threats
• MICMAC
• cognitive deterrence
• intelligent system
• national security
• institutional integration

Main Subjects

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